COVID-19 may soon be localized in many countries

India may be in local places; The risk of exceeding a limit

The world has been battling infectious diseases for centuries; Experience suggests that these are impossible to remove later. So far people have only been able to eradicate one disease: cocoons. Others have entered the epidemiological category, which has kept the population at an estimated rate since the outbreak of malaria, HIV / AIDS, Ebola, measles and influenza after an epidemic or pandemic infection.

Presumably, this novel is going to be the fate of the coronavirus (COVID-19), which will occur more frequently after the epidemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) has made this prediction. At a press briefing on May 13, 2021, WHO Executive Director Mike Ryan said, “This virus can only become a different virus in our community and never go away.”

This transition from epidemic to local is not easy. “The end of an epidemic is always slow and chaotic. It won’t end all at once, “said Nakhet Verlak, associate professor of history at the University of South Carolina in the United States. It is possible that the Covid-19 will take on a local shape in some parts of the world and continue to spread to other regions. Warlick reports that it is probably a new emerging contagion. May cause disease Practical. A key issue in this infection is whether a country has acquired the ability to resist swine flu through vaccines or when it becomes ill.

Let us first analyze the situation. Researchers from the University of Lisbon in Portugal, Mark Waldohen and J. Pedro Seamus Nature Review Immunology By January 5, 2021, it is likely that vaccines will succeed in ending the COVID-19 epidemic. However, they doubt whether they will be effective against the reproduction or eradication of SARS-CoV-2 because jaws do not prevent infected people from surviving the virus infection.

Since COVID-19 is a new disease, we do not know how long this vaccine will protect us from re-infection or whether it will adequately protect us from newly emerging forms. Three forms are already known.

Not being vaccinated around the world at the same time and at the same pace. The pace of vaccination in developed countries is fast at the moment. “Although the disease is a public health concern for poor countries, it does mean that the virus is spreading anywhere in the world and the global risk is not over,” Verlik said.

In other scenarios, people infected with SARS-COV-2 are developing adaptive immunity against it. However, there is a lack of clarity on whether people can be infected again. The Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Jeffrey Shaman and Marta Galanti of Columbia University of the Melman School of Public Health in New York, says there is evidence that fungi can be caused by pathogens such as influenza virus, respiratory CNC virus, rhinovirus and chronic psychovirus. Can happen.

The authors wrote, “If the restoration of most people in the world should have been normal and an effective vaccine had been provided, stork-covi-2 could probably have occurred locally.” Science October 30, 2021.

The latest national sero-survey in India found that only 21.3 per cent of people acquired antibodies after becoming infected. However, city-level surveys have shown that more people have been infected. For example, about 57 per cent of the people in Delhi are infected. The actual figures may be higher.

“There is no reason for the disease to go away until the infection has spread enough,” said Jacob John, a faculty member in the community medical department at Christian Medical College in Vellore.

Another indicator that the disease is endemic at the local level is the R0 value. If an infected person can transmit the disease, it is reduced by 1.

Professor of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai. Sitavara Sinha said, “This happens when the number of new cases is balanced by the number of recovery / removal through death, so that the number of active cases remains constant.” Their calculation shows that for the period from November 19 to February 3, India was 0.92.

Once localized, the stork-covi-2 will join other seasonal flu-causing coronaviruses that are transmitted to humans, according to a model: Science January 12, 2021. The model assumes that the immunity of SARS-CoV-2 works similarly to other human coronaviruses and predicts that the lethal rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection may return to stable from season two influenza (0.0 percent).

“We are in a secluded place. However, immunological indicators suggest that in the near future the critical need for mortality and large-scale vaccinations may be eliminated, so maximum efforts should be made to end this virgin epidemic,” said Otten Georgesstad, one of the authors.

A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 can save thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine rollouts, but it may be less important to continue after local vaccination of SARS-COV-2. The study noted that vaccination targeting vulnerable populations could still save lives.

However, as it is likely to be a threat to public health around the world, the immunological disease could easily turn into an epidemic when the number of resistant individuals falls below a certain threshold. According to Warlick:

When vaccination efforts slow down or fail, the disease returns, seen as measles. I think it’s important that even if there is a single person infected with COVID-19 in the world, the risk continues for everyone. We need to keep in mind that this epidemic was probably caused by a single person being initially infected. Therefore, it is important to have international cooperation for uniform distribution and administration of vaccines worldwide.

From the experiences of the disease it is understood that once they become localized the money available for their control also decreases. The HIV epidemic in the early 1980s prompted decisive government investment and action, but in 2017 local HIV struggled to maintain the same focus, write Graham Medley and Anna Vassel of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK. Science July 14, 2017.

The paradox, as they say, is that epidemics are much more of a burden on public health than epidemics.

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